![]() That isn’t necessarily surprising despite winning the division in 2020, Liam Hendriks and Marcus Semien both departed for more lucrative climes this winter, and their playoff odds sit at just 33.1%. Here it is probably worth remarking on the relative scarcity of the A’s. Their rebuilt rotation no doubt helps, as does having been able to replace Andrelton Simmons with José Iglesias, but if I had to guess, it was the trio of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani that moved voters. The Astros lost George Springer to free agency and have seen attrition in both their bullpen and rotation this spring (though they did sign Jake Odorizzi to help pick up the slack), which probably explains why the Angels were such popular picks in the West. On the other hand, our playoff odds project Tampa Bay to finish fourth in the division, and our crowd’s wisdom puts them ahead of the Red Sox (whose postseason chances are better) by quite a bit, suggesting confidence in the Rays’ vaunted depth and skepticism of a Sox squad still finding its footing after the Mookie Betts trade. On the one hand, we’re clear skeptics, with only three of us picking the reigning AL pennant winner to win their division losing Blake Snell and Charlie Morton can have that effect. There are two ways we might think about the staff’s view of the Rays. But the Blue Jays, who only received Wild Card consideration in last year’s version of this exercise, got four division-winning votes and did well further down the ballot, a recognition of their offseason additions and promising core. The Yankees were the AL’s only unanimous selection and dominated the East divisional vote. I’m don’t think they’re ready to compete in earnest with the AL’s other Wild Card contenders, but they certainly seem to think they are, and it’s always good to have a little zag in a ballot full of zig. ![]() I expected Kansas City to be a more popular sleeper pick. Meanwhile, four teams received no playoff votes (the Mariners, Rangers, Tigers, and Orioles), while two more (Royals and Red Sox) received just one. Twenty of our voters submitted ballots with Houston and New York as division winners their Central votes were split between the Minnesota (12 votes) and Chicago (eight). The American League once again appears to be stratified into the haves and the yet-to-arrives, though our writers see two of the three divisions as competitive at the top. The 2020 individual awards? A big goose egg! Such is the prognostication business.įolks from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in here are the results. Still, with the exception of the Marlins (we thought the Nationals would do a better job defending their World Series title) and the Blue Jays (whither the Angels we picked instead?), we had October pretty well pegged. Despite the 11th-hour format switcheroo, the FanGraphs staff ended up doing pretty well when it came to last year’s playoff field, though with eight teams in each league advancing to the postseason, the odds were in our favor. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. And on this, the morning of Opening Day, we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule and predict the year in baseball. Well, after a winter spent fretting over the pandemic and the free agent market’s glacial pace (and what both might mean for baseball), the 2021 season is upon us.
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